The publication of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector in May 2021 was a watershed moment for global climate action. The report maps out concrete milestones that need to be met to enable a 2050 world with net zero emissions and limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C.
The IEA report finds that in order to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5oC, we must ensure:
- No investment in new fossil fuel supply beyond projects committed in 2021: As the Executive Director of the IEA stated: “there is no need for new oil, gas and coal development, which includes no need for oil and gas exploration investments.”
- Zero-emission electricity: Electricity generation must be 100% zero-emission in the OECD by 2035, and globally by 2040. This means a phase out of all oil and gas-fired power plants within the same timeframes (while coal-fired power has to be phased out sooner).
- For heating, there are no new fossil fuel boilers sold from 2025.
These IEA findings confirm once and for all that new gas investments cannot be deemed compatible with a 1.5°C pathway. In addition, given that the average lifespan of gas-fired plants is 25 years, it makes clear that there is no room in the EU and OECD’s carbon budget for any new fossil gas-fired plant producing power and/or heat to be installed between now and 2035.
This has serious implications for the EU taxonomy: given that there is no room for new gas power in the IEA 1.5°C scenario, gas cannot be included in the EU sustainable finance taxonomy, which itself refers to a 1.5°C pathway in both its Article 10(2) on transitional activities and Article 19 on technical screening criteria.
Finally, it should be noted that the IEA’s findings on fossil gas are fully consistent with the Commission’s own Impact Assessment for the 55% climate target, which finds that EU gas consumption needs to be cut by around 30% by 2030 and that gas supply to residential buildings must fall even faster, by 44%.
With COP26 nearing, we call on you not to include fossil gas in the EU sustainable taxonomy (concretely, the Commission should adhere to the 100 g CO2/kWh threshold set by the first Delegated Act for power and heat): it would ruin the taxonomy’s credibility, undermine the European Green Deal, and send a disastrous global signal at odds with the urgent need for climate mitigation efforts.
The US is already aiming for clean power by 2035, which is consistent with the IEA report. The EU must not send a signal, with its own taxonomy, that goes in the opposite direction.
The Annex of this letter provides more evidence on the electricity and heat sectors from the IEA Net Zero report.
Please do not hesitate to contact us to clarify any questions you may have.
Kind regards,
- WWF European Policy Office, Ester Asín, Director
- ActionAid Denmark, Lars Koch, Policy Director
- Transport & Environment, William Todts, Executive Director
- Naturschutzbund Deutschland e.V., Leif Miller, National Executive Director
- CEE Bankwatch Network, Pippa Gallop, Southeast Europe Energy Advisor
- Agent Green, Gabriel Paun, President
- Naturefriends International, Andrea Lichtenecker – Executive Director
- European Environmental Bureau, Jeremy Wates, Secretary General
- E3G, Lisa Fischer, Programme Lead Climate Neutral Energy Systems
- Climate Bonds Initiative, Prashant Vaze, Senior Fellow
- ClientEarth, Anaïs Berthier, Head of EU Affairs
- Greenpeace European Unit, Magda Stoczkiewicz, Programme Director
- CAN Europe, Wendel Trio, Director
- Fondation Nicolas Hulot pour la Nature et l’Homme, Alain Grandjean, Président
- Friends of the Earth Europe, Eilidh Robb, Anti Fossil Fuels Campaigner
- WeMove Europe, Laura Sullivan, Executive Director
- ECOS, Justin Wilkes, Executive Director
- Global Witness, Murray Worthy, Gas Campaign Leader
- AbibiNsroma Foundation, Kenneth Nana Amoateng, Director
- Noarc21, Colin Buick, Chairperson
- Climate Strategy Group, Peter Sweatman, CEO
- Forum Ökologie & Papier, Evelyn Schönheit, Environmental Scientist
- BirdLife Europe and Central Asia, Ariel Brunner, Senior Head of Policy
- ASUFIN (Association of Financial Users), Virginia Fuentes, Financial Services Manager
- Deutsche Umwelthilfe, Sascha Müller-Kraenner, Executive Director
- Reclaim Finance, Paul Schreiber, Supervision of Financial Institutions Campaigner
- Fair Finance International, Kees Kodde, Project Lead
- Association of Ethical Shareholders Germany, Tilman Massa, consultant
- AnsvarligFremtid, Johannes Lundberg, Campaign Coordinator
- Foundation Bluelink, Bulgaria, Pavel Antonov, Executive Director
- Pracownia na rzecz Wszystkich Istot, Radosław Ślusarczyk, President of the Board
- VsI “Ziedine ekonomika”, Domantas Tracevicius, Director
- ZERO – Associação Sistema Terrestre Sustentável, Francisco Ferreira, President of the Board
- Klimabevægelsen (350 Denmark), Thomas Meinert Larsen, Policy Adviser
- Council for Sustainable Transport, Denmark, Poul Kattler, Chairperson
- Ecological Association EKO-UNIA, Radosław Gawlik, President
- DOF BirdLife, Thomas Lehmberg, International Program Manager
- Environmental Action Germany, Sascha Müller-Kraenner, Executive Director
- Profundo, Jan Willem van Gelder, Director
- GegenStroemung – INFOE e. V., Thilo F. Papacek, Project Officer
- Climate & Company, Ingmar Juergens, Managing Director
- Polish Ecological Club Mazovian Branch, Urszula Stefanowicz, Policy Officer
- Fair Finance Guide Netherlands (Eerlijke Geldwijzer), Peter Ras, Project Lead
- Gas Free Pensions, Clara McDonnell, Communicator
- Green Liberty, Janis Brizga, Chair
- Alliance for Empowering Rural Communities, Richard Matey, Executive Coordinator
- ShareAction, Maria van der Heyde, Head of EU Policy
- Aki Kachi, Climate Science Expert
- Society for the Earth, Robert Wawręty, Vice-President
- Les Amis de la Terre France, Lorette Philippot, Private Finance Campaigner
- Fossil Free Sweden, Maria Hammer, Project Leader
- Aitec, Maxime Combes, Economist
- ATTAC Germany, Michael Tellman, Campaigner
- BirdWatch Ireland, Oonagh Duggan, Head of Advocacy
- Irish Peatland Conservation Council, Tristram Whyte, Policy Officer
- 2Celsius, Mihai Stoica, Executive Director
- Humusz Waste Prevention Alliance, György Szabó, Zero Waste Program Manager
- Estonian Green Movement, Madis Vasser, Board Member
- EuroNatur Foundation, Gabriel Schwaderer, Executive Director
- Kola Ecocenter Public ecological movement, Yuri Ivanov, Council Member
- urgewald, Heffa Schuecking, Director, and Regine Richter, energy campaigner
- Centre for Transport and Energy, Barbora Urbanová, Director, and Šimon Batík, Coordinator
- Society for Sustainable Living Czech Republic, Jiří Dlouhý, Chairman
- Re-set, Radek Kubala, Campaigner
- Extinction Rebellion Slovakia, Ondrej Kozlovsky, CLO
- Fundacja „Rozwój TAK – Odkrywki NIE”, Patrycja Stefanek, Finance Campaigner
- Biodiversity Conservation Center, Alexey Zimenko, Director General
- Rainforest Action Network, Pallavi Phartiyal, Deputy Executive Director
- Bellona Europa, Jonas Helseth, Director
- Ecologistas en Acción, Sagrario Monedero, Gas Campaigner
- Fundación Renovables, Fernando Ferrando Vitales, President Raquel Paule, Martín, Director General
- Change Finance, Shonan Kothari, Convener
- Both ENDS, Niels Hazekamp, Senior Policy Adviser
- ECODES, Víctor Viñuales, Executive Director
- Zielony Instytut, Dariusz Szwed, Board Member
- Instytut na rzecz Ekorozwoju, Andrzej Kassenberg, Co-founder and Senior Expert
- Alianza Mar Blava, Sara Pizzinato, Project Leader
- ReCommon, Antonio Tricarico, Programs Director
- Talousdemokratia – Economic Democracy Finland, Konsta Nylander, Chairman
- GAP Poland Foundation, Zdzisław Nitak, Director
- The Alliance of Associations Polish Green Network, Maciej Wereszczyński, Climate and Energy Coordinator
- Socio-ecological union international, Svet Zabelin, Coordinator
- World Animal Protection Netherlands, Dirk Jan Verdonk, Director
- Natuur & Milieu, Marjolein Demmers, Executive Director
- Shamrock Sping, Deirdre Lane, Founder
- Forum for Ageing Better, Carmel Mulrine, Acting Coordinator
- Global Aktion, Morten Nielsen, Campaigner
- Emergenzaclimatica.it, Angelo Gagliani, Coordinator
- Campagna Per il Clima Fuori dal Fossile, Renato di Nicola, Campaign Representative
- Clean Air Action Group (Hungary), András Lukács, President
- EKOenergy ecolabel, Steven Vanholme, Programme Manager
- Bulb Foundation, Allison Robertshaw, Director
- Za Zemiata, Rory Forster, Gas Policy Coordinator
- The Green Tank, Nikos Mantzaris, Partner & Senior Policy Analyst
- Andy Gheorghiu Consulting, Andy Gheorghiu, Campaigner & Consultant (Founder)
- SEE Change Network, Garret Patrick Kelly, Principal
- eco-union, Jeremie Fosse, President
- Eco Advocacy, Suzanne Brady, Director
- Facing Finance, Thomas Küchenmeister, Managing Director
- Ember, Phil MacDonald, COO, and Sarah Brown, Senior Analyst
- Coal-Free Finland (Hiilivapaa Suomi), Vera Kauppinen, Campaign specialist
- Counter Balance, Xavier Sol, Director
- Finnwatch, Lasse Leipola, Climate Policy Specialist
- Vasemmistofoorumi – Left Forum Finland, Jukka Pietiläinen, Director
- Fair Finance Guide Sweden, Jacob König, Policy Expert
- Just Finance International, Wawa Wang, Program director
- Oil Change International, Bronwen Tucker, Public Finance Campaign Co-Manager
- Youth and Environment Europe, Nathan Méténier, Advocacy Manager
- Milieudefensie, Jonas Hulsens, Senior Policy Officer
- Extinction Rebellion Ireland, Caroline Kuyper, Campaigner
- Umweltinstitut München e.V., Dr. Hauke Doerk, Campaigner on Energy Politics and Radioactivity
- Groen Pensioen, Marjolein van Dillen, Analyst
- Swedwatch, Davide Maneschi, Programme Officer on Climate Change
- Food & Water Action Europe, Frida Kieninger, Senior Campaigner
- Partnership for Policy Integrity, Mary Booth, Director
- Ecoloxistes n’Aición d’Asturies, Paco Ramos, Energy and Pollution Commission
- Dublin FoE, Fergal Costello, Executive
- Energy Watch Group, Hans-Josef Fell, President
- Framtiden i våre hender, Anja Bakken Riise, Leader
- Feasta: the Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, Caroline Whyte, Ecological Economist
- International Network for Sustainable Energy – Europe, Gunnar Boye Olesen, coordinator
- Réseau Action Climat France, Neil Makaroff, EU Policy Coordinator
- Lithuanian Consumers Alliance, Kęstutis Kupšys, Vice-President
- Quantum Leap, Pía Carazo, Director
- Jordens Vänner, Sofia Hedström, Acting Director
- BankTrack, Johan Frijns, Director
- Europe Beyond Coal, Mahi Sideridou, Managing Director
- Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean (GFLAC), Diana Cardenas Monar, International Agenda Coordinator
- Zelena Akcija, Luka Tomac, President
- Tree Union Netherlands, Paul Dufour, Chairman
- Veblen Institute for Economic Reforms, Wojtek Kalinowski, Co-Director
- SumOfUs, Leyla Larbi, Senior Campaigner
- An Taisce-The National Trust for Ireland, Gary Freemantle, Interim CEO
- European Geothermal Energy Council (EGEC), Philippe Dumas, Secretary General
- ETIP RHC, Marco Calderoni, President
- FoE Finland, Tanja Pulliainen, Chairperson
- The Shift Project, Matthieu Auzanneau, Executive Director
- 350.org, Nicolò Wojewoda, Regional Director
- EUREC, Greg Arrowsmith, Secretary General
- olish Zero Waste Association, Piotr Barczak, Board Member and Circular Economy Advisor
- RED SRL, Luc Pockele, Managing Director
- Shecco, Marc Chasserot, CEO
- ECCO – The Italian climate change think tank, Luca Bergamaschi, Co-Founder
- Red Tree Heritage Institute, Leon Kebe, Director
- Legambiente, Edoardo Zanchini, Vice-President Mauro Albrizio, European Affairs Director
- Association Défense des Milieux Aquatiques, Philippe Garcia, President
- Kyoto Club, Sergio Andreis, President
- Mallusk Community Action Group, Richard Gregory, Chairperson
- FairFin, Els Lauriks, Coordinator
- Creatura Think & Do Tank, Timo Kuusiola, Chair of the Board
- Social Ecological Institute, Jolanta Zientek-Varga, Member
- International Service for Human Rights, Phil Lynch, Executive Director
- Attac Norway, Sondre Molteberg Dalen, Deputy Leader
- Bürgerbewegung Finanzwende Magdalena Senn, Sustainable Finance Expert
- Extinction Rebellion Poland
- Parents for Future Poland
Annex: Excerpts from the IEA Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE)
- “Fossil fuel use falls drastically in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE) by 2050, and no new oil and natural gas fields are required beyond those that have already been approved for development.” (Page 99)
- “In buildings, bans on new fossil fuel boilers need to start being introduced globally in 2025, driving up sales of electric heat pumps’’ (Page 19)
- ‘’By 2050, electricity provides 66% of energy use in buildings (33% in 2020). Natural gas use for heating drops by 98% in the period to 2050.” (Page 99)
- “Fossil fuel use in the buildings sector declines by 96% and space heating energy needs by two-thirds to 2050, thanks mainly to energy efficiency gains” (Page 143)
- ‘’Space heating is transformed in the NZE, with homes heated by natural gas falling from nearly 30% of the total today to less than 0.5% in 2050” (Page 145)
- “High efficiency electric heat pumps become the primary technology choice for space heating in the NZE” (Page 145)
